Noti Casi De Todo: Russia's euphoria over Crimea won't last

President Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity has boosted, writes David Satter

Starting a war to solve a domestic problem is now a Russian tradition, he says

Satter: Russia's businessmen depend on the West because of lawlessness in Russia

The impending economic crisis is a potential threat to Putin's political base, he writes

Editor's note: David Satter is a senior fellow of the Hudson Institute and adviser to Radio Liberty. He was the first U.S. correspondent to be expelled from Russia since the Cold War. The views expressed in this commentary are solely his.

(CNN) -- The seizure of Crimea has boosted the domestic popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin to an unprecedented 82%. In the long run, however, the invasion could be the death knell of the Putin regime.

Starting a war to solve a domestic problem is now a Russian tradition. The first and second Chechen wars had political motives. Both were intended to distract attention from the consequences of privatization and the second brought Putin to power. The 2008 invasion of Georgia sharply increased the popularity of Dmitri Medvedev, who was filling in as president for Putin.

The earlier acts of aggression, however, did not evoke a strong international response. This time, Russia faces full scale war if it invades eastern Ukraine and, at the very least, sanctions if it does not withdraw from Crimea. It is ill equipped to handle either of these challenges.

Putin has used rhetoric reminiscent of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s, insisting in his speech on March 18 that "Russia was not simply robbed, it was plundered" and denouncing "national traitors." The regime he heads, however, is tied to the West inextricably.

John Kerry talks Ukraine with Russia

Will Putin invade Ukraine?

Ukrainian military buildup on the border

Russia's wealthy, who are dependent on connections to the regime, keep their money, families and assets abroad. They avoid Russian taxes with the help of businesses registered in off-shore zones and also acquire foreign passports and buy private planes in part so that they can leave Russia quickly and discreetly if that becomes necessary. One foreign lawyer in Moscow with experience of the elite told me: "Their lack of patriotism is astounding."

Russia's businessmen depend on the West because the lawlessness inside Russia allows for assets to be seized by anyone who has political power. Large companies can be seized by state enterprises and small and medium-sized companies by persons connected to the security services.

Businessmen make far more money than they could in a comparable situation in the West because most significant Russian businesses are protected monopolies. The ability to dispense with competition, however, is the result of political patronage that can be affected by the slightest change in the balance of power.

Under these circumstances, Russia's businessmen do not keep capital in Russia and panic at the slightest threat. Western sanctions against Russian were relatively tepid but, for the Russian elite, the precedent was unnerving. Capital flight, which had been running at about $8 billion a month is now expected to amount to $70 billion for the first quarter.

The conditions in Russia also undermine the ties to their country of persons who are not rich. According to a poll by the Levada Center in 2013, nearly half of all Russian students said that they wanted to emigrate.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev speaks at a meeting on the economic development of Crimea in Simferopol on Monday, March 31. Ukrainian and Western officials have voiced alarm about Russia's reported military buildup on Ukraine's eastern border. Moscow has formally annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea region, sparking the biggest East-West confrontation since the end of the Cold War.

Members of the new Ukrainian National Guard take part in military exercises on a shooting range near Kiev on March 31.

A woman cries during a gathering to honor those who were killed during protests in Kiev's Independence Square on Sunday, March 30.

A woman and child walk past a line of police officers during a rally in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 30.

Ukrainian soldiers take part in a training exercise at a military base in Donetsk on Saturday, March 29.

Demonstrators protest Friday, March 28, in Kiev, displaying police vehicles they seized during earlier clashes with authorities.

Members of the Right Sector group block the Ukrainian parliament building in Kiev on Thursday, March 27. Activists called for Interior Minister Arsen Avakov to step down after the recent killing of radical nationalist leader Oleksandr Muzychko, who died during a police operation to detain him. Muzychko and the Right Sector are credited with playing a lead role in the protests that toppled Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych.

Ukrainian tanks are transported from their base in Perevalne, Crimea, on Wednesday, March 26. After Russian troops seized most of Ukraine's bases in Crimea, interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov ordered the withdrawal of armed forces from the Black Sea peninsula, citing Russian threats to the lives of military staff and their families.

Ukrainian marines wave as they leave a base in Feodosia, Crimea, on Tuesday, March 25.

Russian sailors stand on the deck of the corvette ship Suzdalets in the bay of Sevastopol, Crimea, on March 25.

Pro-Russian militia members remove a resident as Russian troops assault the Belbek air base, outside Sevastopol, on Saturday, March 22. After its annexation of Crimea, Russian forces have consolidated their control of the region.

Soldiers in unmarked uniforms sit atop an armored personnel carrier at the gate of the Belbek air base on March 22.

A Russian sailor holds the Russian Navy's St. Andrew's flag while standing on the bow of the surrendered Ukrainian submarine Zaporozhye on March 22 in Sevastopol.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signs the final decree completing the annexation of Crimea on Friday, March 21, as Upper House Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, left, and State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin watch.

A Ukrainian serviceman leaves a Ukrainian military unit that Russian soldiers took control of in Perevalne on March 21.

Ukrainian border guards run during training at a military camp in Alekseyevka, Ukraine, on March 21.

Russian soldiers patrol the area surrounding a Ukrainian military unit in Perevalne on Thursday, March 20.

Pro-Russian protesters remove the gate to the Ukrainian navy headquarters as Russian troops stand guard in Sevastopol on Wednesday, March 19.

Pro-Russian forces walk inside the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 19.

A member of pro-Russian forces takes down a Ukrainian flag at the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 19.

Alexander Vitko, chief of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, leaves the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol after pro-Russian forces took it over on March 19.

A Russian flag waves as workers install a new sign on a parliament building in Simferopol, Crimea's capital, on March 19.

Russian military personnel surround a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne on March 19.

Nameplates on the front of the Crimean parliament building get removed Tuesday, March 18, in Simferopol.

From left, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov; Vladimir Konstantinov, speaker of the Crimean parliament; Russian President Vladimir Putin; and Alexei Chaly, the new de facto mayor of Sevastopol, join hands in Moscow on March 18 after signing a treaty to make Crimea part of Russia.

Demonstrators hold a Crimean flag at Lenin Square in Simferopol on March 18.

Ukrainian soldiers stand guard at a checkpoint near Strilkove, Ukraine, close to Crimea on Monday, March 17.

Former boxer and Ukrainian politician Vitali Klitschko addresses reporters in Kiev, Ukraine, on March 17.

Ukrainian troops stand guard in front of the Ukrainian Parliament building in Kiev on March 17.

A Ukrainian man applies for the National Guard at a mobile recruitment center in Kiev on March 17.

Civilians walk past riot police in Simferopol on March 17.

A Ukrainian soldier stands on top of an armored vehicle at a military camp near the village of Michurino, Ukraine, on March 17.

Policemen stand guard outside the regional state administration building in Donetsk, Ukraine, during a rally by pro-Russia activists March 17.

Armed soldiers stand guard outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne on March 17.

A man holds a Crimean flag as he stands in front of the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol on March 17.

Crimeans holding Russian flags celebrate in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on Sunday, March 16.

A Ukrainian police officer tries to shield himself from a road block thrown by pro-Russia supporters in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 16.

Pro-Russia demonstrators storm the prosecutor general's office during a rally in Donetsk on March 16.

A woman leaves a voting booth in Sevastopol on March 16. See the crisis in Ukraine before Crimea voted

Photos: Crisis in Ukraine

Obama: Putin may have plans for troops

Russia beefs up troops on Ukraine border

"Everyone feels slightly handicapped," said Yelena Panfilov, the head of Transparency International. "You cannot do what you want, invest where you want, say what you want. A journalist cannot write what he wants. Everywhere, there is the need for political protection and the necessity of being subject to control. The more capable a person, the more he chafes under the restrictions."

So far, Russians have not paid a price for their government's acts of aggression. The fall in the value of the ruble and the reduction in the real income of the population began this year independent of the events in Crimea. But these tendencies are now set to continue and accelerate. This is a potential threat to Putin's political base. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of food products in Russia has risen by 25%.

The impending economic crisis will be explained to the Russian population as the result of foreign sabotage. The propaganda in the official press which equates the Ukrainians with Nazis and treats the West as aggressors has been accompanied by the blocking of the critical websites, grani,ru., yezhednevny zhurnal.ru and kasparov.ru and actions against the radio station, Ekho Moskvy and the internet television station, TV Rain.

Putin will seek to unite the country around him and in opposition to the outside world as was done in the Soviet Union during the 1930s. Russia today, however, is nowhere as isolated as the totalitarian Soviet Union and Russians have much less to believe in.

The educated part of the population will not be impressed by the increasingly grotesque distortions of official propaganda. At the same time average citizens, witnessing the fall in their living standard and the likely increase in the corrupt machinations of those with connections to power, may finally realize that the anti-criminal revolution in Ukraine has relevance for their future too.

READ: 'The hordes are coming': Ukrainians fear Russian invasion in northeast

READ: White House: Putin, Obama discuss possible 'diplomatic solution' in Ukraine

READ: Does Obama really understand Putin?

via CNN.com - Top Stories http://ift.tt/1dMREFY